Market Update for the Week of September 28, 2026

Welcome to my weekly market update. Every week I pull together the current numbers on mortgage rates, what the Federal Reserve is saying, and what is actually happening in the national, Oregon, and Willamette Valley markets. I keep it short, scannable, and in plain English, so you always know where things stand. This week the headline is a big one: mortgage rates moved above 7%, and the Federal Reserve is signaling at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. Here is what it all means for you.

1. National Market Update

Mortgage Interest Rates

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03% this week, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey released September 24. That is up from 6.95% the week before and up from about 6.26% a year ago. The 15-year fixed average is running at 6.42%, up from 6.26% a week earlier and 5.41% a year ago. Crossing into the 7% range is a big psychological line, but remember the practical side: comparing lenders and locking in when you see any dip matters more now than ever.

What the Federal Reserve Is Saying

The story this week is what comes after the Fed's September 16 rate hike. The new Summary of Economic Projections, released with the decision, shows the median Fed official expecting at least one more quarter-point hike this year, with the benchmark rate projected to end 2026 in a 4.00% to 4.25% range. Chair Kevin Warsh made the tone clear at his press conference: inflation is still too high and has been for too long, and price stability is the Fed's predominant focus. Boston Fed President Susan Collins added on September 23 that she sees upside risks to inflation and an increased likelihood it runs notably above the 2% target. The next FOMC decision comes October 27 and 28. The takeaway: rates are likely to stay elevated for a while, so plan on your timeline, not on the headlines.

National Housing Trends

The latest national data is still August, released by the National Association of REALTORS on September 10, with the September report due in October. Existing-home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 2.0% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier, the lowest pace since July 2025. The median existing-home price was about $429,100, up 1.6% year over year, the 38th straight month of gains. Inventory rose to 1.62 million units, about a 4.9-month supply, the most generous level in more than a decade. Higher rates are keeping the sales pace cool, but buyers keep getting more to choose from.

2. Oregon State Market

Oregon's market continues to hold steady. Per Redfin's August figures, updated September 23, the statewide median sale price was about $506,900, down less than 1% from a year ago, with about 3,900 homes sold, down 1.7% from last August. Supply sits around 3.2 to 3.5 months depending on the source, and homes are selling in about a month to six weeks on average. The story of 2026 continues here: gently more inventory, gently more normal conditions, and a market that is closer to balanced than it has been in years.

3. Willamette Valley Local Markets

Eugene Area Market

Eugene and Lane County remain in a healthy, slightly sellers-leaning position, though prices have eased a touch. RMLS-based reports for Lane County put the July median sold price at about $466,000, down 1.3% from a year earlier. Moving into August, the Eugene market ran roughly $474,500 for the month alone per RMLS-based data, down from $485,000 in July, while Redfin's three-month window shows a median around $499,000, down about 2.2% year over year. Inventory in the city sits at about 2.3 months of supply, and homes are selling in about a month on average depending on the source. Well-priced, well-prepared properties are still moving, but buyers have a little more room to breathe than they did last year.

Salem Area Market

Salem and the surrounding Marion and Polk counties are cooling toward balance. Per RMLS data for August, Marion and Polk combined posted a median sale price of about $465,800, up 3.8% from a year earlier, with the average sale price around $507,000, up 9.7%, the highest average of the year. Inventory sits at about 4.8 months of supply, holding steady from July and among the most generous levels in the valley. Around the city, the median sale price runs about $450,000 to $481,000 depending on the source, and homes are taking longer to sell, around 41 to 59 days. That slower pace gives buyers more time to decide and more room to negotiate, especially in outlying areas.

Portland Area Market

Portland is a balanced, normalizing market. Per the RMLS Portland Metro report for August, the median sale price was $540,000, down 1.8% from a year earlier, with the average sale price around $607,200, down 2.1%. Inventory sits at about 3.8 months of supply, up from 3.3 months in July and up from a year ago, and homes are selling in about 57 days, roughly five days faster than last August. Submarkets vary, with homes moving faster in places like Gresham and Troutdale. With more supply on the market, Portland buyers can be selective, and prices are easing gently.

What This Means for You

Here is the honest take from someone who has weathered every kind of market over 26 years and more than 500 homes sold: crossing the 7% line feels big, but it points to a market that is simply more balanced and more normal. Buyers, rates above 7% and a Fed signaling another possible hike mean getting pre-approved and acting on your own timeline is the smartest play, and the extra inventory in Eugene, Salem, and Portland gives you real room to negotiate. Sellers, pricing right from day one is the whole game now, because buyers in this market are more selective and have more options.

Whether you are buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of the numbers, I am here to help you turn this into a clear plan for your life.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (September 24, 2026), Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Summary of Economic Projections, and Chair press conference (September 16, 2026), Federal Reserve Bank of Boston remarks (September 23, 2026), National Association of REALTORS Existing-Home Sales report (August data, released September 10, 2026), Redfin Oregon market data (August data, updated September 23, 2026), and RMLS-based market reports for Lane County/Eugene, Marion and Polk counties/Salem, and the Portland metro. Figures reflect the most recent data available as of the week of September 28, 2026. Market statistics can vary by source and month; this is a snapshot, not financial advice.